Richard Masse, public health strategic adviser, explained Quebec’s COVID-19 pandemic projections on Tuesday. They estimate the province could see between 1,300 and 8,900 deaths due to the disease by the end of the month.
That’s why the COVID-19 modelling the federal government is presenting this morning needs to be read with an understanding of what these models can — and can’t — tell us.
The projections that governments across the country are relying on now are imperfect but still important, because they allow those governments to assess their capacity to handle the spread of the virus, explain the reasons behind restrictive preventative measures and prepare for the future.
Source: Canadian Broadcasting Corporation
Date: April 10th, 2020
- ” Ontario and Saskatchewan have projected a best-case scenario death toll of about 3,000 people in their provinces — even though Ontario has 12.5 times the population of Saskatchewan ” How can this be?
- ” governments are using them to inform their decisions. The modelling released by British Columbia provides a practical example of this. It was focused not on future cases or fatalities, but rather on how many beds in intensive care units would be needed under various scenarios. That allowed the government to determine the likelihood that its health care system would be overburdened and decide what needs to be done in advance to prevent that from happening. ” What different sorts of information are needed to make estimates like these?